Weekly F&O Context — Sunday, 12 July 2026

Sunday evening, quick note before the week starts. Been thinking about sizing more than setups lately, because honestly that's where most of my P&L variance comes from — not from picking bad trades, but from picking the right trade with the wrong size.

Here's how I'm framing it this week. Full size only when three things line up: VIX is behaving (not spiking intraday), the daily structure is clean — meaning we're either trending or holding a clear range — and my entry is near a level I actually respect. Not "close enough." Actually at the level. If you're chasing 40 points into a move, that's not a full-size trade, that's a half-size trade at best.

Halve it when the open is gappy, when global cues are mixed, or when you've taken a loss earlier in the day. That last one is the hardest. Ego says double down. Account says go smaller. Listen to the account.

This week we've got the usual monthly data flow and expiry pressure building by Thursday. I'd personally keep size small into Wednesday afternoon onwards — theta games are fun until they aren't, and one bad hedge on expiry morning can undo a week of patient work.

For intraday levels I still run everything through the pivot calculator before the open. Not because pivots are magic, but because it forces me to write down where I'll act before the market gives me emotions.

One rule worth repeating: if you can't articulate why this trade deserves full size in one sentence, it doesn't. Halve it and move on.